Chinally Chemical
The high price of pesticide is running, and whether to collect or not is a problem.
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Time of issue: 2021-11-09
【Summary】The high price of pesticide is running, and whether to collect or not is a problem.
Since September, in order to achieve the carbon neutrality target for the whole year, the state has implemented measures to limit electricity and production in provinces and cities where electricity consumption exceeds the target. Pesticide raw drugs have also experienced a leaping price increase process like many commodities. Pesticides have undergone tremendous changes in terms of price and supply. Many products doubled in just ten days, such as tebuconazole, imidacloprid, acetamiprid, glufosinate, etc.
The short-term dramatic changes in the market, from the policy environment and industry cycle to boil down to the following factors:
1.In terms of industry operating cycles, from2016In the second half of the year, the environmental storm brought about by the capacity reduction price increase,.2019In the first half of the year, through industrial upgrading and industrial transfer, the production capacity of most products has basically been restored, and downstream enterprises and channels have also completed the process of increasing inventory again.2019In the second half of the year, the industry entered a weak cycle, and in the first half of this year, the process of removing production capacity and inventory was basically completed. Even without this power restriction, the second half of this year will enter a strong cycle. In the early stage, the glyphosate production line of multinational companies stopped production, and the price increase of glyphosate has shown this trend. Even without this power restriction and production restriction policy, the future2-3Most pesticide raw drugs will also be in a strong cycle of sharp price increases.
2.In order to achieve the goal of supply-side reform, some upstream bulk industrial raw materials have basically completed the process of industrial merger and reorganization and capacity reduction, effectively breaking the invalid supply, and breaking the vicious competition by increasing the concentration of the industry, so that the product prices of bulk raw materials have risen significantly in the past two or three years, and remain stable at a relatively high level.
Only by eliminating vicious competition and improving the business conditions of enterprises can we increase investment in research and development, increase investment in environmental protection facilities, and achieve high-quality development. The lack of monopoly profits and competition brought about by monopoly will make enterprises lose the motivation to improve their management level and innovation, and vicious competition will make enterprises lose their operating profits and the ability to invest in innovation.
However, the products in the middle and lower reaches of most industries have many varieties, many small and medium-sized enterprises involved, and the production enterprises are scattered. It is impossible to complete the supply-side reform of reducing production capacity as quickly as bulk raw materials, and it takes a long time to complete through market and administrative means.
We might as well see this power cut as a short-term industrial-side reform of the regulatory approach. We have reason to believe that in the future development, the industry concentration will continue to increase, and the prices of products made in China will be in line with those of developed countries with the same quality.
3.This year's drought in North and South America has caused widespread fires and a massive reduction in grain production, with a reduction in wheat production in the United States.40%The floods in Europe and China have made people more and more aware that the model of relying on petrochemical coal energy to promote economic development and improve human living standards will bring great harm to the earth and bring great disaster to human survival in the future, leaving little time for human error correction.
In order to protect our survival of the earth's environment, our government put forward2030peaking CO2 emissions in,2060The goal of zero carbon emissions was achieved in, and phased emission reduction measures were set to control targets.
2021Year1-9China's electricity consumption increased year-on-year in January.12.9%The primary industry increased year-on-year.18.9%The secondary industry increased year-on-year.12.3%The tertiary industry increased year-on-year.20.7%. According to the current measures to limit electricity and production,10---12Industrial electricity consumption was compressed in January50%About, can basically achieve zero growth in industrial electricity throughout the year.
10Month26The State Council issued 《2030The Carbon Peak Action Plan, proposed2025Decreased energy consumption per unit of GDP in13%, the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP2020Annual decline18%.2020China's non-petrochemical energy share in15%,2025Year reached20%. To achieve the above indicators, it is necessary to deepen supply-side reforms, adjust the industrial structure, limit the use of petrochemical energy such as thermal power, and increase the use of renewable energy such as hydropower and wind power. In a relatively long period of time in the future, there will be varying degrees of industrial production to limit the use of thermal power. These measures will affect the production of our pesticide industry and the supply of APIs.
4.2017Year10Month18The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed for the first time that China's economy should shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development. Some experts have put forward the idea that China's industrial development is "German" to make this concept more vivid.
High-quality development is reflected in three aspects: economic vitality, innovation and competitiveness. If we refer to the performance of German companies' products in the market, it can be summarized as good product quality, good service quality, leading technology, positioning in the high-end market, high market share in the high-end, and rich corporate profits.
The development model that relies on low cost and low price to impact the market will gradually withdraw from the development model of our economy.
5.6In January, steel production was restricted, and the direct result of the restriction was that the price of iron ore fell in a short period of time.50%,The success of the suppression of iron ore nearly two years of endless rise. All localities have canceled the loss subsidies for iron and steel enterprises, and the state has canceled the tax rebate for iron and steel exports.9In late January, the steel industry introduced another half-year production restriction measures, and the price of imported iron ore continued to fall.
The U.S. opened unlimited monetary easing after the outbreak of the New Crown epidemic, causing a sharp rise in global commodity prices. On the other hand, as a global manufacturing center, there is serious overcapacity in all walks of life in my country. Due to overcapacity, the ex-factory prices of products are difficult to rise, and many companies are in a state of loss. After power restriction and production restriction, the prices of various products have risen sharply.
After the power restriction and production restriction, the crazy coal price has plunged sharply, and the international crude oil price has also begun to fall sharply.
Limiting electricity and production may become an important means to control carbon emissions and combat inflation input, which will be normalized for a period of time.
6.The state's control of real estate development also means the end of the era of land finance, and taxation will become the main source of government revenue. Enterprise value-added tax, enterprise income tax, personal income tax and real estate tax will become the main source of government revenue. Recently, the government introduced a real estate tax pilot program. Controlling competition, increasing business profits, and increasing personal income are effective ways to increase the first three sources of taxation.
Among the above six factors, the strong cycle of the industry means that the market will enter a stage where supply exceeds demand. Supply-side reform, control of carbon emissions, high-quality development, power restriction and production restriction against imported inflation, and the end of the land finance era all mean that industrial products should reduce production, eliminate vicious competition, improve product quality and increase product value and price. The era of mass production of industrial products with low-price competition in China will gradually end, and the era of low-cost life will gradually become a thing of the past. This process will affect not only domestic market participants and the lives of most people, but also the lives of most people around the world.
This round of product price increases are sudden and explosive, which has brought some confusion to many downstream enterprises. I don't know whether to purchase or wait at this price. If you are afraid of falling down, the short-term market transmission will not be in place and the downstream will not accept it. If you don't take it, you may be forced to withdraw from some markets if you don't get the goods until the peak season. Some people in the industry believe that the sudden change in the market may have an impact on the industry pattern, and some downstream enterprises that are already poorly managed will not be able to continue to operate and will be eliminated.
The following is a quantitative analysis of how to look ahead to product prices before the end of the peak season:
China's pesticide industry has been in the seller's market in the early days, organochlorine pesticides banned, API production and sales from the original80Ten thousand tons fell short.30million tons,1990Annual production and sales volume38million tons,1995Annual production and sales volume65million tons,2000Annual production and sales volume88million tons,2005Annual production and sales volume100million tons,2010Annual production and sales volume234million tons,2015Annual production and sales volume374Ten thousand tons, the production reached the highest peak.14-16Annual production and sales reached370More than 10,000 tons.16After the year by the national environmental protection policy and organophosphorus, paraquat, Fumei and other products such as the prohibition of production and prohibition of the dual impact of the production of raw materials decreased significantly.2016Annual API Output377million tons,2017Annual output294Ten thousand tons, production decreased from the previous year.22%;2018Annual output222Ten thousand tons, down again from the previous year.24.5%,2018-2020gradually stabilized in220More than 10,000 tons.1997Year-1998The first oversupply occurred in5-7A cyclical fluctuation in the year has been experienced.03year,09-10year,15-16year,20-21Several lows in the first half of the year.
This time, affected by the carbon peak control electricity consumption index,9Month20No.-12The supply of many products fell at the end of the month50%, corresponding to the impact of a procurement year the supply has declined12.5%-15%If we take into account the impact of next year's carbon peak target, the supply will fall on the existing basis.4%Above; given that the market has entered a strong cycle, there is a need for restocking in the global pesticide market, which can grow for two to three consecutive years, pulling each year.8-9%This year's demand-driven effect may be delayed because the prices of short-term products have risen too fast and too much; in addition, the Winter Olympics will have a great impact on some products from Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi. The market gap for most pesticide varieties next year will reach25%Above, comparable to the hottest market2018Year. This is why some products on the market meet or even exceed2018The logic of the annual price.
The current price of pesticide raw materials is undoubtedly in a high-priced area. The short-term rise is too high and too fast, and the market is not transmitted downstream so fast. The prices of some products may fall slightly, but the range will not be too large. There is also the possibility that prices will continue to rise in the coming peak sales season.
Downstream preparation companies are also facing a problem while preventing prices from falling. If they do not purchase at the pace of previous years, they may face the risk of not purchasing when they are used. For the preparation production enterprises, it is a problem whether to harvest or not.
Analysis of the supply and demand relationship of several products:
F113aIt is a raw material for the production of important intermediates kung fu acid and trifluoroacetic acid.9Month23The impact of the limited electricity production policy from the beginning of the production reduction range reached.50%The duration is estimated to the end of the year. Kung fu acid is an intermediate in the production of kung fu chrysanthemum, bifenthrin, tefluthrin and other products. Trifluoroacetic acid is in a state of shutdown during this period,10Month20No. 1 enterprises have resumed production. Trifluoroacetic acid is an intermediate in the production of chlorfenapyr and flufenamide. Fluoridamide is the growth rate of demand in recent years.30%The above varieties have exceeded at the beginning of this year.20A preparation registration certificate is now available.68A preparation registration certificate, the drug season is expected to reach the temporary preparation certificate.80A. Estimated supply gap of chrysanthemum, bifenthrin and chlorfenapyr by the end of the procurement season20%Above, the market gap for fluridamide30%Above.
The two most important costs in the production of avermectin are electricity and starch, and the cost of producing avermectin rose when the price of coal rose to its highest point in time.15-20Ten thousand yuan/Tons, based on the current price of coal, the same.3Month-to-month comparison, because of the increase in coal prices, the production cost of avermectin also increased per ton.5-7million; because corn starch prices rose from the same period last year.2.3Ten thousand yuan/Tons, affected by the poor harvest of grain at home and abroad, the price of corn starch continues to rise.
From the production situation,7-9In January, the main production enterprises stopped production for maintenance,9In the second half of the month, the impact of limited electricity production was greater, and the production limit of major enterprises reached25%Above. Avermectin production enterprises are mainly in Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Ningxia. The main enterprises are close to Chongli, Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province. The production for a period of time will be greatly affected by the holding of the Winter Olympic Games.
From2013Since then, the demand for avermectin has increased27%The compound growth rate of about is still continuing due to the rapid growth of emamectin exports.
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